Three thoughts on Sarah Palin.

1. Everyone on the teevee is saying this takes the "experience" argument away from McCain, but I don't buy it. McCain will still hammer Obama on experience, mostly by insinuation -- the "celebrity" taunt isn't going away, and Palin doesn't take it off the table.

What this does do, though, is alter the Obama camp's line of attack against McCain. Up until now, they've been really tentative in pushing the issue of McCain's age and frailty. By picking Palin, McCain makes that kind of push a lot more appealing. When they raise concerns about McCain's health and vigor going forward, they'll be reminding voters of Palin's greenness without broaching the experience question directly. Look for McCain to be portrayed as a doddering fool a lot more often in the weeks to come.

(Saturday morning update: Huh. I sure wasn't wrong about the age and frailty thing -- one day in, the phrases "Sarah Palin" and "heartbeat away" return 142,000 Google hits in conjunction, while "Joe Biden" and "heartbeat away" turn up just 21,000 after more than a week. The experience question is definitely breaking harder against McCain than I expected it would, though, at least in the short term.)

2. On the gender front, I suspect this choice will, counterintuitively, cement the return of the Hillary faithful to the Democratic fold. Hillary and Bill's speeches at the DNC went a very long way toward making that sale, and the typical Clintonista is going to be revulsed by the idea of sending an aggressively anti-choice conservative woman to the White House in Hillary's place. This pick may win McCain some female votes, but I don't at all see them coming out of Hillary's base.

3. Palin is apparently a strong supporter of Alaskan oil drilling, and her husband is an oilfield worker. I have a hunch that her presence on the ticket will shake up the environmental dynamics of the race a bit, though Obama's shift on offshore drilling may dampen her effectiveness on that front somewhat. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out.

Update: Here's something else. It's only sixty-seven days until election day. That's not a lot of time for the country to get comfortable with someone who is essentially a complete unknown. This isn't the choice of a presidential candidate who thinks he's sitting on a comfortable lead.

One more: Obama represented twenty-five times as many people in the Illinois state senate as Palin did as mayor of Wasilla, AK, and nearly half as many as she does as governor of Alaska. The Bronx Borough President, Adolfo Carrion, presides over a constituency twice the size of Palin's.